Watch list

Circle's July 10 final approval is the benchmark. Watching for Ripple's conditional status converting to final. World Liberty Trust Co.'s conditional approval (Aug 15) is a second pipeline data point.

Implied passage odds collapsed from roughly 82% to 16-21% at Run 2 and sit near 19-21% ahead of the Sept 15 cloture vote. Tracking the legislative calendar for any revival path.

Run 2 flagged reported inflows diverging from price weakness as an anti-bias item. Aug 15 flow data confirmed a 93% week-over-week inflow collapse, resolving the divergence bearishly and driving the fundamentals downgrade. Watching Monday's weekly print for structural vs bounce.

Ripple confirmed attending. Watching the attendee list and any Reg Crypto / Innovation Exemption policy signals, including around the CFTC's Aug 20 IAC meeting.

The baseline's primary scheduled catalyst: a proposed crypto token offering framework.